国泰君安期货：能源化工：玻璃纯碱后市如何演绎

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The medium-term adjustment of both glass and soda ash markets is not over. For glass, wait until the end of delivery to consider anti-deflation and anti-involution. For soda ash, it rises based on expectations and falls due to delivery [4][5] - There is a possibility that the market will return to the negative feedback channel until the end of delivery. Anti-deflation and anti-involution can interrupt the negative feedback cycle [24] - The real estate industry is weak, with tight funds and lackluster transactions, which has a negative impact on the glass and soda ash industries [25][30] - Although anti-involution is weakening, there is still a possibility of trading anti-deflation in macro asset allocation [35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Glass Views - The main pressures include weak terminal demand, high futures premiums, large warehouse receipt pressure during the 09 contract period, and the lack of significant inclination in the previously hyped anti-involution policy. The main bullish logics are large positions, the unchanged trend of anti-deflation policies, and the possibility of market-driven production cuts [4] Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day; newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 12,110 tons/day; potential newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day; potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons; potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [44][45][46] - Short - term production reduction space is limited. If demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day [52] Price and Profit - Market prices have gradually declined in the past two weeks. Futures have rebounded, the basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread is still weak. The 01 contract has a premium of nearly 150 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. Profits vary by fuel type, with petroleum coke having a profit of about 130 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal - fired having profits of about - 150 and 111 yuan/ton respectively [64][70][74] Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions have declined significantly, and inventories in various regions have increased. Regional price differences tend to widen. The supply - side current output is 159,000 tons/day, and it is expected that demand will exceed 5 million tons for at least 2 - 3 months in the second half of 2025 [81][86][90] Soda Ash Soda Ash Views - The main pressures are high supply and high inventory, with large warehouse receipt pressure during the 09 contract period. The main bullish logics are the unchanged trend of anti - deflation policies, concentrated inventory structure, improved export markets, and the linkage between stocks and futures [5] Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The current capacity utilization rate is 85.4%. The weekly output of heavy soda has reached 423,000 tons/week. The inventory is about 1.865 million tons, with 717,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.148 million tons of heavy soda ash [106][108][111] Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction range of traders' quotes is greater than that of manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The profit of the soda ash industry varies by region and production method, with the joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) being 68 yuan/ton and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China being 56 yuan/ton [121][123][127] Market Scenarios - The market scenario of soda ash is becoming increasingly weak. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [129] Anti - Involution, Anti - Deflation, and Real Estate - "Anti - deflation and anti - involution" are necessary for building a unified national market. The real estate industry has debt repayment pressure in the first half of 2025, with weak investment and lackluster transactions [8][29][30] Photovoltaic Glass - The overall transaction in the domestic photovoltaic glass market is good, and the inventory has been continuously decreasing. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels have increased. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day. The sample inventory days are about 26.93 days, showing a downward trend [94][96][98]