Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-14 11:04Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, while treasury bond futures weakened. The central bank continued net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly. Domestically, July's financial data showed structural differentiation, with the year - on - year growth rate of social financing rising for three consecutive months and credit weakening marginally. The policy effect of expanding domestic demand emerged, and foreign trade remained resilient. The Ministry of Finance launched a double - discount policy. Overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the market expected a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market is still anchored to equity fluctuations, and the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.12%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.36% respectively. T, TF, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 5478, 4113, and 16673 respectively, while TS decreased by 1961 [2]. - Futures Spreads: Most spreads showed a downward trend, except for some spreads like T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 which increased [2]. - Futures Positions: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 13223, 6780, 2945, and 8709 respectively. The net short positions of T's top 20 increased by 1743, while those of TF, TS, and TL decreased by 1531, 2090, and 621 respectively [2]. 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, such as 220010.IB decreased by 0.0853, 250007.IB decreased by 0.1408 [2]. 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.45bp, 1.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.86bp, and 0.75bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 1.97bp, Shibor overnight remained unchanged, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 0.50bp, and Shibor 7 - day decreased by 0.80bp [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 1287 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1607 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the incremental social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were - 500 million yuan, M2 year - on - year growth rate was 8.8%, M1 was 5.6%, and M0 was 11.8%. - 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. - On August 18, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct the tender for the eighth - phase central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits, with an operation volume of 120 billion yuan and a term of 1 month [2]. 3.8 Key Data to Watch - On August 14 at 20:30, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 (in ten thousand people). - On August 15 at 20:30, the US retail sales month - on - month rate for July [3].