油脂：多头大量回补，油脂高位回调

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - International: The USDA's August supply and demand report lowered the expected yield and ending stocks of US soybeans, causing the CBOT soybean price to reach a one - month high. Malaysia's decision to raise the September palm oil tariff may suppress exports, leading to a high - level correction in Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: The inventory of soybean oil continues to rise. Increased exports and the continuation of Sino - US trade risk premiums support the soybean oil price, but short - term profit - taking by bulls puts pressure on the price. The palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory remained stable last week but the downward trend persists. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed will significantly restrict imports, resulting in a tight medium - to - long - term supply. With the cooling of market sentiment, the rapeseed oil futures price has basically filled the previous gap [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro and Industry News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 49.4 - 51 million tons [2]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 are estimated to be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 8.15 million tons [2]. - Malaysia has set the export tax for September crude palm oil at 10%, up from 9% in August, with the tax rising by 17.7% from $81.8/ton in August to $96.3/ton [2]. - India's oil imports in July decreased by 10.5% month - on - month, while its vegetable oil imports increased by 2% [2]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the report Views and Strategies - International: The CBOT soybean price reached a one - month high due to the USDA's report, and the potential suppression of Malaysian palm oil exports by the tariff increase led to a high - level correction in its futures [5]. - Domestic: Different trends are shown for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in terms of inventory, supply - demand, and price movements [6]