贵金属日报-20250814

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Today, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The US announced that the annual rate of CPI in July remained flat at 2.7%, slightly lower than expected, but the annual rate of core CPI reached 3.1%, higher than expected and at a five - month high. The inflation pressure brought by tariffs is not obvious, and the market has fully priced in the Fed's restart of interest rate cuts in September. The international gold price has strong resistance above $3400 per ounce. Attention should be paid to the US PPI and weekly initial jobless claims data tonight [1]. - Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September. There are discussions about potential Fed chair candidates, and different Fed officials have different views on inflation and interest rate policies. There are also geopolitical events such as Trump's statements on Russia - Ukraine conflict and potential meetings, and the US Treasury Secretary's views on interest rate cuts and geopolitical impacts [1][2] Detailed Summaries Market Conditions - Precious metals are volatile today. The US 7 - month CPI annual rate is 2.7% (flat), slightly lower than expected, core CPI annual rate is 3.1% (higher than expected, five - month high). Market fully prices Fed's September rate cut. International gold has strong resistance above $3400/oz. Tonight, focus on US PPI and weekly initial jobless claims [1]. Fed - related Information - Trump is considering 11 candidates for Fed chair, but he says only 3 - 4 left. Traders fully price a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee needs more inflation improvement evidence; Fed nominee Milan says no evidence of tariff - induced inflation. US Treasury Secretary Bessent thinks Fed may cut 50 basis points, current rate should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points [2]. Geopolitical Events - Trump says Russia will face consequences if it doesn't stop the conflict, hopes for a second meeting with Putin and a potential US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party meeting. Bessent says if the Trump - Putin meeting goes badly, sanctions or secondary tariffs may increase [2].