镍、不锈钢：日内回调前期涨幅

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Intraday Correction of Previous Gains, Risk Management Daily Report on August 14 - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] 1. Price Range Forecast 1.1. Nickel - Price Range: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] 1.2. Stainless Steel - Price Range: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 9.27% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 1.8% [2] 2. Risk Management Strategies 2.1. Nickel 2.1.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell NI main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [2] 2.1.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month NI contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [2] 2.2. Stainless Steel 2.2.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell SS main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [3] 2.2.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month SS contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Intraday, Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with no obvious changes in fundamentals. Nickel ore arrival inventory remained at a high level, and the bottom support was loosening, with a clear situation of strong supply and weak demand. Nickel iron remained firm intraday, with strong price support willingness from the supply side, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remained to be considered. The new energy chain salt plants had some support recently, with increased demand from some downstream precursor plants and relatively stable transactions. Stainless steel also corrected its previous gains intraday, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above 13,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the previous follow-up increase in transactions was poor, and there was a certain downward adjustment at present. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continued. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [4] 4. Market Analysis 4.1. Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel [6] 4.2. Bearish Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off-season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - Pure nickel inventory is high - Seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, with loosening bottom support - Sino-US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti-dumping duties on China's hot-rolled products [6] 5. Market Data 5.1. Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 121,200 | -1,140 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1 | 121,200 | -1,140 | -0.93% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2 | 121,340 | -1,130 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3 | 121,530 | -1,140 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | -120 | -0.93% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 102,257 | 12,747 | 14.24% | lots | | Open Interest | 66,437 | -4,493 | -6.33% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 20,720 | 142 | 0.69% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | -660 | 620 | -48.4% | yuan/ton | [6] 5.2. Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 13,025 | -105 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1 | 12,945 | -100 | -0.77% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2 | 13,025 | -105 | -0.80% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3 | 13,090 | -95 | -0.72% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 160,562 | 238 | 0.15% | lots | | Open Interest | 135,237 | -8,989 | -6.23% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 103,521 | 3 | 0.00% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 340 | 70 | 25.93% | yuan/ton | [7] 6. Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change from Previous Period (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory | 40,572 | 1,086 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 211,140 | 42 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 954 | -12.2 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 33,415 | 182 | [8]