豆粕生猪：利好情绪释放，连粕小幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures showed downward trends on August 14, while the CBOT US soybean futures rose. The market is influenced by factors such as weather in the US Midwest, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [1][2]. - The price of CBOT soybean futures is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall due to factors like the overall downward adjustment of the US soybean harvest outlook and the undetermined weather situation. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to reach new highs from September to October [15][16]. - The live hog market currently has an increase in supply from the breeding side and weak demand. However, the near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day. The prices of coastal mainstream oil mills dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2601 contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 13.72 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.94% to 1042 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the western part has active rainfall, and the eastern part is relatively dry. The temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was close to or higher than normal. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, with the temperature close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture as corn and soybeans enter the reproductive stage [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From August 10 to 16, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 2.34 million tons, soybean meal exports 639,100 tons, and corn exports 2.1834 million tons [5]. - On August 13, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal shrank to 75,000 tons, with the average trading price rising to 3104.36 yuan/ton, reaching a three - month high [5]. - Affected by the improvement of the fundamentals in the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report and the increasing weather risk premium, the CBOT soybean futures rose. On August 14, the import cost of US soybeans reached 4672 yuan, Brazilian soybeans 4075 yuan, and Argentine soybeans 3881 yuan, reaching new highs [5]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, up 2% from the previous estimate [6]. - As of August 7, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 400,000 - 900,000 tons. The expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year are between 50,000 - 250,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 100,000 - 250,000 tons [6]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.8 million tons [6]. - On August 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.17 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.1% [7]. - In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7]. - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [10][11][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean futures are expected to be bullish. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is in a strong position in the short - term, with the upper pressure range at 3250 - 3300 and the lower support at 3120. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to reach new highs from September to October. The spot price of soybean meal has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The basis in the fourth quarter is not expected to decline significantly [16][17]. - Live Hogs: The supply from the breeding side has increased, and the demand is currently weak. The near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19].