纯苯：苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250814

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the near term, both supply and demand of pure benzene have increased. The balance sheet shows that pure benzene will experience a slight destocking in August and September, with an improved supply - demand pattern. However, due to high hidden inventories and poor terminal demand, the improvement in fundamentals is limited. Styrene faces an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The balance sheet indicates a continuous supply surplus from August to September, with weak fundamentals. But supported by peak - season expectations, the downward space is also limited. Attention can be paid to potential demand growth in styrene exports. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, and consider narrowing the spread between pure benzene and styrene when the price is high [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is in the range of 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 7000 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about styrene price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7300 - 7350 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2509C7400) with a 50% ratio at a range of 25 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, and lock in the spot selling price if styrene prices rise [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2509P7200) with a 75% ratio at a range of 25 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene prices fall [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Recently, there have been many downstream projects of pure benzene put into production, including aniline, phenol, and styrene, which has improved the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene. As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 14.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.43%. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 14.88 tons, a decrease of 1.02 tons or 6.42% from the previous period. Both pure benzene and styrene continued to destock. There are many rumors about styrene exports in the market, and there may be demand growth in the export end [5] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The downstream of styrene is in the seasonal off - season. In the previous cycle, there was a significant increase in short - term shutdown and production - reduction devices in the EPS industry, and downstream factories mainly made rigid - demand purchases of raw materials. The production schedule data of three major white - goods in late July showed that the future production schedule of white - goods was still poor, and the terminal consumption demand expectation of styrene in the third quarter was pessimistic [6] Basis and Spread Analysis - The report provides the daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene, as well as the spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot, paper - cargo, and futures spreads, and their changes from August 13 to August 14 [8] Price Data of the Industrial Chain - The report presents the price data of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain on August 14, 13, and 7, 2025, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products, as well as their production profits and changes [8][9]