Guoxin Securities·2025-08-14 11:23Core Viewpoints - The home appliance sector is expected to show steady growth in domestic sales despite the diminishing effects of national subsidies, with a return to stable growth anticipated in the second half of 2025 [3][25] - The valuation of the home appliance industry remains at a low level, with the industry index PE (TTM) at 14.45X, placing it at the 39.0 percentile since 2020 [13] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the home appliance sector, highlighting the resilience of major appliances and the recovery of small appliances [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the home appliance sector slightly underperformed the market, with the sector index down 1.2% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which remained stable [10] - The home appliance sector's valuation is at a five-year low, with significant growth in home appliance components, which saw a rise of over 17% [10][11] 2. White Goods - Domestic sales of white goods benefited from national subsidy policies, showing strong resilience, with a projected steady growth in the second half of 2025 despite a slowdown in growth rates [4][19] - Major brands like Midea, Haier, Gree, and Hisense are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and global production capabilities [4][17] 3. Black Goods - The black goods segment, particularly televisions, is experiencing stable demand with a shift towards Mini LED technology and decreasing panel prices, which are expected to enhance profitability for leading companies [40][44] - The domestic retail volume of televisions increased by 1.8% in the first half of 2025, with retail revenue growing by 7.5% [44] 4. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly for traditional cooking appliances, driven by national subsidies, with retail sales of range hoods and gas stoves showing significant growth [53][54] - The overall demand for kitchen appliances is expected to stabilize as the effects of national subsidies wane, with a focus on the recovery of the real estate market to support future growth [55][57] 5. Small Appliances - The small appliance market, particularly kitchen appliances, is witnessing a notable recovery, with retail sales reaching 31.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [65] - The demand for new cleaning products, such as robotic vacuum cleaners, has surged, with sales increasing by over 40% due to national subsidies [68][66] 6. Technology Integration - Leading home appliance companies are focusing on their strengths and expanding into emerging application areas, such as smart home technology and AI products, which are expected to drive long-term growth [4][28]