半导体行业月报：美国发布《AI行动计划》，海外云厂商持续加大资本支出-20250814

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven significantly by AI as a key growth engine [4][5] - North America's four major cloud providers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) have increased capital expenditures, with a total of $87.4 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 23% [3][4] - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow year-on-year, with June 2025 sales increasing by 19.6%, marking the 20th consecutive month of growth [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In July 2025, the domestic semiconductor industry rose by 3.06%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 3.54% [10] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.11% in July 2025, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.38% [12][18] 2. Global Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales in June 2025 reached approximately $59.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [21][22] - The WSTS forecasts a global semiconductor market sales growth of 11.2% in 2025, reaching $700.9 billion [23] 3. Capital Expenditure Trends - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure budget from $75 billion to $85 billion, while Meta's budget increased to $66-72 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68%-84% [3][4] - Microsoft is expected to exceed $30 billion in capital expenditures in Q3 2025 [5] 4. AI and Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing hardware infrastructure remains strong, with significant investments in PCB, copper connections, and optical chips [5] - The penetration rate of AI smartphones is expected to rise rapidly to 34% by 2025, while AI PC penetration is projected to reach 35% [4][5] 5. Price Trends - In July 2025, the monthly spot prices for DRAM and NAND Flash continued to rise, with expectations for further increases in Q3 2025 [4][21]