原油&油品行情展望

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]