事件点评：对7月贷款负增长的理解

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Even if the private sector's goal changes causing a decline in loans, it doesn't mean the economy won't recover, as demonstrated by the US from 2008 - 2011 [4] - During the economic recovery phase, it's reasonable for the private sector to continuously repay loans [5] - Despite the negative growth of new RMB loans in July 2025, the economy in the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable [6] - There are two possibilities for the economy to perform well in the second half of 2025: the government sector continues to expand while the private sector doesn't, or the private sector starts to expand under policy incentives while the government sector remains stable [7] - With the economic outlook being revised, bond yields are expected to rise, and the target for the 10 - year Treasury yield in the second half of 2025 is 1.9 - 2.2% [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Understanding the Negative Loan Growth in July - On August 13, 2025, the PBOC announced that in July 2025, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan [3] Loan Decline and Economic Recovery - The US from October 2008 to April 2011 showed that even with a continuous decline in loan balance, the economy, stock market, and Treasury yields could rise significantly [4] - As the economy recovers, the private sector's ability to repay loans improves, so loan repayment and economic recovery are not contradictory [5] Economic Outlook in the Second Half of 2025 - The probability of continuous negative new loans in China is low. The negative new loans in July 2025 were affected by seasonality, and in 2005, new loans turned positive the next month [6] - The government's expansion can effectively offset the impact of the private sector's early loan repayment. Since September 2024, although the credit balance growth rate has continued to decline, the economy stabilized as the government adopted a policy combination of "monetary easing, fiscal expansion, and credit expansion", and the social financing stock growth rate has been rising [6] Bond Yield Outlook - With the social financing growth rate rising, the economy is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, and bond yields are expected to rise [8] - Historically, the reasonable level of the 10 - year Treasury yield is in the range of DR007 + 40 to 70BP. Considering the current DR007 level, the target for the 10 - year Treasury yield in the second half of 2025 is 1.9 - 2.2%. If inflation normalizes, the reasonable range of the 10 - year Treasury yield may also increase [8]