Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy - chemical sector. Most energy - chemical products are facing weak fundamentals and show a downward trend in the short - term technical analysis, with investment strategies mainly suggesting holding short positions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In September, the production increase rate continued at 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US led to weak apparent demand, and the supply - demand fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to hold cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. After today's decline, the daily - level break - down was confirmed, and the short - term pressure on the hourly level moved down to 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: In August, demand was still in the off - season and remained weak. The supply start - up rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new plants, supply pressure would further increase, and inventory pressure was relatively high year - on - year [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined, testing the lower edge of the 15 - minute oscillation. The short - term pressure above is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. (3) Rubber - Logic: According to the seasonal pattern, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although there is some impact from the rainy season in the producing areas, there is no extreme weather. Short - term tire start - up has improved, but high tire inventory still suppresses the expectation of further start - up recovery. The mid - term fundamental driver is downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. The 15 - minute small cycle turned down, and there was a reversal signal at the 15950 pressure level on the hourly level. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. The supply side has not resumed production after maintenance, and production is higher than new capacity, so it is bearish in the medium term. Short - term support comes from the low inventory of upstream butadiene [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. There was a confirmed reversal signal at the 11950 short - term pressure level of the 10 - contract. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. (5) PX - Logic: The upstream PX device is operating stably. The start - up of downstream terminals has increased at a low level during the off - peak to peak season transition. There is no major short - term contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long negative line. After a short - term break - down, the decline accelerated, and the short - term pressure above moved down to 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. (6) PTA - Logic: Polyester demand is weak. The supply - side start - up is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory has turned to accumulation. There is no obvious contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined during the day. After a short - term break - down, the decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. (7) PP - Logic: In the off - season of demand, downstream start - up is weak. With the commissioning of new capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Also, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated during the day without changing the downward structure. The hourly pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure of 7090 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival in July was low due to Iranian plant shutdowns, but the Iranian plants resumed in August, and the arrival is expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high - supply pressure, port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driver is weak [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term is in a downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, the short - term break - down accelerated, and the short - term pressure above is 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) PVC - Logic: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the start - up rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. Demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is evident, and the fundamental driver is bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term is in an upward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, it is still on a downward path, and the short - term pressure above is 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy - chemical products, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it declined with volume. Wait for the confirmation of a break - down and then the decline will accelerate. The short - term pressure above is 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate has increased, and with the commissioning of new capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream start - up rate remains at a low level year - on - year. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident, and the supply - demand driver is bearish [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. Today, it oscillated during the day, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7320 [32]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains high. The anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [33]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The 09 and 01 contracts still have differentiated structures, with the 09 contract declining and the 01 contract rising. There was a reversal signal at the 1295 pressure level of the 09 contract during the session. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference of 1310 [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: On the demand side, the start - up of alumina remains at a high level, and the start - up of non - aluminum demand viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has also increased rapidly, the chlor - alkali profit has increased, and the caustic soda start - up has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated. The 01 contract has a strong structure but performed weakly today, and the 09 contract has a weaker structure but performed strongly today. At the same time, the 09 contract shows signs of breaking through the 2540 pressure. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute 2515 support, with a stop - loss at today's high [37].
原油破位带动能化下行
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-14 12:34