聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250814

Report Overview - The report is a daily risk management report on polypropylene, dated August 14, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene (PP) prices currently lack a directional driver and mainly follow macro - sentiment. In the short - term, the PP supply - demand balance can be maintained, but there is significant inventory pressure looking towards the 01 contract. Future focus should be on demand and cost changes [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - The monthly price range for polypropylene is predicted to be between 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 25% of PP2509 futures at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and sell 50% of PP2510C7200 call options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory and procurement based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs and sell 75% of PP2510P7000 put options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. PP supply is high due to previous plant startups and PDH plant returns during the maintenance season. Demand has stable downstream开工率, with low raw material and finished - product inventories and speculative restocking willingness, indicating demand elasticity [3] Bullish Factors - Inventory is at a neutral level, and there is an expectation of improved demand [4] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to start production in August, with multiple plants starting up from June - August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is closed [5] Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main - contract basis was - 35 yuan/ton on August 14, 2025, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all showed price declines on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased slightly on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between different non - standard and standard polypropylene products showed various changes on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil prices remained stable, while US propane prices increased slightly. Different PP production methods had varying profit changes [8]