资产配置日报：债在跌啥3.0-20250814

Market Performance - On August 14, the equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3666.44, down 0.46% [1] - The CSI 300 Index also fell slightly by 0.08%, closing at 4173.31 [1] - The domestic commodity market saw a further cooling of sentiment, with major products like coking coal and polysilicon leading the declines, down 6.3% and 3.1% respectively [2][3] Market Trends - The current market correction is viewed as part of a cycle that began on July 18, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced growth stabilization plans [3] - Key commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon have seen their maximum gains shrink significantly, indicating a loss of momentum [3] - The futures prices of coking coal and glass have shown signs of improvement, suggesting that market participants are anticipating a tightening of supply in the future [3] Investment Sentiment - The report suggests that the rapid decline driven by sentiment may be nearing its end, with signs of renewed buying interest from long positions after the recent pullback [4] - The market is expected to transition from a phase of broad declines to a more differentiated performance based on the fundamentals of individual commodities [4] - The low interest rates are maintaining stability in the funding environment, with the central bank continuing to implement liquidity measures [5] Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" theme has led to widespread declines in related sectors, with indices for photovoltaic equipment, steel, and coal all showing negative performance [2][3] - The report highlights that the recent downturn in coking coal and polysilicon is primarily due to overall market sentiment rather than significant deterioration in their fundamentals [2] - The report also notes that the small-cap stocks have underperformed, indicating a potential shift in market style [8][10] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key indicators: the implied volatility of the market, the performance of small-cap indices, and the trends in overseas computing power chains [10] - A significant drop in leveraged funds could signal the beginning of a more pronounced adjustment period for the market [10]