国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: The actual demand for steel has limited improvement, and the price has corrected from its high level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Demand falls short of expectations, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The sentiment in the sector is weak, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][15]. - Coke and coking coal: The sentiment has declined, and the prices are correcting from their high levels [2][18][19]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton (-2.52%). The import and some domestic ore prices also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%). Inventory and production data also changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. In July, financial statistics showed changes in M2, M1, etc. In late July, steel inventory and production data of key enterprises changed, and automobile production and sales data were released [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [14]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [15][16]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 14, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coking coal JM2601 and coke J2601 decreased. Spot prices and various spreads changed [19]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [21]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - Macro and Industry News: In July, financial statistics showed that M2 and M1 had year - on - year growth [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [25].