国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250815

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on August 15, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - For nickel, the supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end limits its elasticity; for stainless steel, the tug - of - war between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] Fundamental Data - Futures Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,200, down 1,140 from T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 13,025, down 105 from T - 1 [4] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 122,700, down 450 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 925, up 2 from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in IMIP, and audits will be carried out; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is higher than 2024; some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines stopped due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] 2. Lithium Carbonate Core View - The industry inventory of lithium carbonate is slightly decreasing, and the price fluctuates [2][9] Fundamental Data - Futures Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 85,140, up 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the 2511 contract was 85,300, up 200 from T - 1 [9] - Industry Chain Data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000, up 1,000 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,750, up 950 from T - 1 [9] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the weekly inventory decreased [10] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; for polysilicon, there are increasing disturbances from the news side [2][12][13] Fundamental Data - Futures Data: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,675, up 75 from T - 1; the closing price of PS2511 was 50,430, down 860 from T - 1 [13] - Industry Chain Data: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800, unchanged from T - 1; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 47,000, unchanged from T - 1 [13] Macro and Industry News - A joint observation group inspected an industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia [13] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [15]