螺纹钢：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡，热轧卷板：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile; Hot-Rolled Coil: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing demand that falls short of expectations and are in a state of weak and volatile trends. The trend strength for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][3][7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - RB2510 closed at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%), with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots and an open interest of 1,636,544 lots (a decrease of 16,049 lots) [3]. - HC2510 closed at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%), with a trading volume of 551,741 lots and an open interest of 1,291,831 lots (a decrease of 62,005 lots) [3]. - Spot Price Data: - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,060 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis and Spread Data: - The basis for RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, and the basis for HC2510 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 243 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar increased by 21 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Steel Output, Inventory, and Demand Data (August 14 Steel Union Weekly Data): - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.84 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.54 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 14.72 tons [4]. - Financial Data (July Financial Statistics Report): - At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% (compared to 8.3% at the end of June). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan [6]. - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, corporate loans increased by 11.63 trillion yuan, and non-banking financial institution loans increased by 235.7 billion yuan [6]. - Steel Enterprise Inventory Data (Late July): - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons (5.6%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 2.41 million tons (19.5%) from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 670,000 tons (4.3%) from the same ten-day period last month, a decrease of 1.27 million tons (7.9%) from the same ten-day period last year, and an increase of 290,000 tons (2.0%) from the same ten-day period the year before last [6]. - Automobile Production and Sales Data (July): - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% [6]. - From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12% [6]. - Steel Enterprise Production Data (Late July): - Key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 7.4% decrease from the previous ten-day period); 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous ten-day period); and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 0.5% increase from the previous ten-day period) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].