Soochow Securities·2025-08-15 02:03Macro Strategy - The report highlights that government bonds support the improvement of social financing, while an active stock market boosts M2 growth, downplaying the negative growth in monthly loans [1][16] - In July 2025, new social financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major contributor [16][17] - The M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% in July 2025, driven by an active stock market and improved fiscal spending [16][17] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the comparative value of non-ETF component bonds in the sci-tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds for better liquidity and potential inclusion in ETF [1][18] - The analysis indicates that the credit spreads of non-ETF component bonds are generally higher than those of ETF component bonds, suggesting a larger selection of bonds with compression potential [1][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of sci-tech bonds in the context of market fluctuations and the potential for future inclusion in ETFs [1][19] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is compared to the supply-side reform, indicating a shift in focus towards new industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and high-end equipment [2][22] - The report notes that the current economic environment shows signs of structural and institutional overcapacity, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [2][22] - The analysis suggests that the "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance quality development rather than merely reducing capacity, with a focus on market-driven measures [2][22] Company Recommendations - Jinlang Technology is projected to benefit from increased demand in Europe and Asia, with a forecasted net profit growth of 68% in 2025 [8] - Upme Holdings is expected to achieve significant profit growth through its multi-brand strategy, with a projected net profit increase of 42.3% in 2025 [9] - Nasda is recognized as a leading domestic printer manufacturer, with a focus on enhancing competitiveness through R&D investments [10]