工业硅：关注市场情绪变动，多晶硅：消息面扰动增加

Report Summary Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Increasing Disturbances in News" and was released on August 15, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions relevant macro and industry news [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For industrial silicon futures Si2511, the closing price is 8,675 yuan/ton, with a change of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, 20 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 110 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 512,076 lots, and the open interest is 279,035 lots. For polysilicon futures PS2511, the closing price is 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 860 yuan compared to T - 1 and 320 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 415,544 lots, and the open interest is 127,757 lots [2] - Basis and Spread: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for industrial silicon is - 40 yuan/ton, and the buy - near - month and sell - continuous - first inter - period cost is 51.6 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for polysilicon is - 740 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 765 yuan/ton [2] - Price and Profit: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton. The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2626 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 3364 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 71.6 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] - Raw Material Cost: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 925 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On the morning of August 11, a joint observation group composed of various bureaus and their functional departments in Wuhai City inspected the 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa undertaken by the Fourth Branch of China National Chemical Engineering No.16 Construction Company. The advanced management experience and clean construction environment were highly recognized [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]