冠通期货早盘速递-20250815

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical News - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated again. US July PPI soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1] - Russian President Putin said the US seeks an acceptable agreement and it's possible to reach a new arms agreement with the US, which could strengthen peace [1] - A coal mine in Changzhi, Shanxi plans to resume production on August 15, with a normal daily output of about 10,000 tons. The 19 - day shutdown affected about 190,000 tons of production [1] Group 2: Commodity Inventory and Production Data - As of August 14, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.8938 million tons, up 28,700 tons (1.54%) from last Thursday. Light soda ash inventory increased while heavy soda ash inventory had mixed changes [2] - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total capacity was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate rose 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [2] Group 3: Key Commodities and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, polysilicon, Shanghai copper, and plastic [3] - Different commodity sectors had various performance. For example, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.87%, the precious metals sector rose 26.95%, and the oilseeds and oils sector rose 13.12% [6] Group 4: Asset Class Performance - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and yearly performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.46%, a monthly increase of 2.61%, and a yearly increase of 9.39% [8][9] - In fixed - income, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all had negative performance [9] - In commodities, WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.00%, a monthly decline of 7.69%, and a yearly decline of 11.15%, while London spot gold had a daily flat performance but a monthly increase of 1.99% and a yearly increase of 27.86% [9] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference - The stock market risk preference was presented through the relationship between the Wande All - A (ex - finance, oil and petrochemical) and the risk premium, as well as the risk premiums of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [13][14]