Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 02:03Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The operation suggestion is to be bearish with a side - to - side trend, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 791.00 yuan/ton, down 14.50 yuan; the position volume is 183,502 lots, down 31,080 lots; the 9 - 1 contract spread is 16 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 2,260 lots, down 7,038 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,400.00 lots, down 200.00 lots; the Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00 is 102.3 dollars/ton, down 1.21 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 852 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 841 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the I main contract basis is 50 yuan, up 9 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 103.30 dollars/ton, down 0.70 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.29, up 0.03; the estimated import cost is 848 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,046.70 tons, down 15.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,571.60 tons, down 50.80 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,267.27 tons, up 45.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,013.34 tons, up 1.25 tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 10,462.30 tons, down 132.70 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 18.00 days, down 6 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.84 tons, down 0.25 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.96%, down 0.36%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.60 tons, down 1.40 tons; the BDI index is 2,025.00, up 8.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.86 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.1 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.07%, down 0.15%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 8,318 tons, down 336 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 21.78%, up 1.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 19.46%, up 1.36%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 23.88%, up 3.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 23.25%, up 4.44% [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2775.94 tons, up 19.66 tons from the previous period; the total daily consumption is 116.82 tons, up 0.68 tons from the previous period; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 23.76, up 0.03 from the previous period. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2571.6 tons, down 50.8 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2381.9 tons, down 125.9 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports is 1203.0 tons, down 50.1 tons. On Thursday, the I2601 contract opened and closed lower. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, the port inventory increased, and the molten iron output continued to decline slightly, but the output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the black series declined across the board, market sentiment declined, and anti - involution varieties corrected, with iron ore prices falling from high levels [2]