国新国证期货早报-20250815

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On August 14, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.46% to 3666.44, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87% to 11451.43, and ChiNext Index falling 1.08% to 2469.66. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days, reaching 2279.2 billion, up 128.3 billion from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4173.31, down 3.27 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1694.3, down 74.8; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1196.1 yuan, down 80.7 [2][3]. - The exchange tightened position limits on coking coal futures from August 15. The 6th round of coke price increase was implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, coking coal imports were 52.8223 million tons, down 7.36% year - on - year, with June imports at 9.1084 million tons, up 23.31% month - on - month but down 15.05% year - on - year. China's coke exports from January to June were 350,600 tons, down 28% year - on - year, with June exports at 51,000 tons, down 25% month - on - month and 41% year - on - year [4]. - Currently, the valuation is moderately high. For coke, port spot prices were stable, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton. Steel mills' high blast furnace operation maintained coke demand, but some traders were cautious after the futures price decline. For coking coal, the price of fat coal in Linfen, Shanxi, dropped 58 yuan to 1247 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with prices rising at Ganqimaodu Port, but trading volume was average [5]. Soybean Meal - On August 14, CBOT soybeans fell from a six - week high due to concerns about export demand. US new - crop soybean net sales were 1.133 million tons as of August 7, higher than expected, while old - crop net sales were - 377,600 tons, down 181% from the previous week. The domestic M2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Low Q4 soybean purchases in China raised concerns about supply shortages, and higher import costs supported prices. However, abundant imports, high refinery operation, and high inventory limited the upward space. Future focus is on weather and imports [5][6]. Live Hogs - On August 14, the live hog futures price was weak, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13,900 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. It's the off - season for pork consumption, with weak demand and low orders from major pig enterprises. Group farms' August出栏 is expected to increase, and overall supply will be abundant in the second half of the year. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and future focus is on policy,出栏 rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Palm Oil - On August 14, palm oil's upward momentum weakened, with the new P2601 contract closing at 9368 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to rise 60% to a record high, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, the lowest since 2019/20 [7]. Shanghai Copper - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years, reducing expectations of a September interest rate cut. The Shanghai copper price fell below 79,000 yuan. It may decline to 78,500 yuan. Import supplies may increase, pressuring the premium, but tight domestic supplies near delivery will support the spot price [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,110 yuan/ton. On August 15, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 390 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 84 lots [8]. Iron Ore - On August 14, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 2.94% to 775 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, but iron ore demand remained strong due to high steel mill profitability. The price will likely fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - On August 14, the asphalt 2510 contract fell 0.54% to 3472 yuan. Capacity utilization increased, but shipments declined. Demand is weak but expected to recover. Low inventory supports the price, and it will likely move sideways in the short term [8]. Logs - On August 14, the 2509 log contract opened at 812.5, closed at 809.5, with an increase of 623 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to spot prices, imports, inventory, and market sentiment [8][9]. Steel - On August 14, rb2510 closed at 3189 yuan/ton, and hc2510 at 3432 yuan/ton. After the hype of production cuts and price increases faded, coking coal futures led black futures down. High - temperature and rainy weather weakened demand, and steel prices may decline in the short term [9]. Alumina - On August 14, the ao2601 contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. With an expected supply surplus, the market will have more available spot. Price competition between upstream and downstream will intensify, and aluminum plants will focus on inventory control [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 14, the al2509 contract closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. Expectations of Fed rate cuts pushed up the price, but low downstream demand and inventory accumulation limited the upside. After the positive sentiment fades, the price may decline. In the short term, it will likely move sideways with a downward bias [10].