Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The hot PPI data in the US has dampened the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the domestic risk appetite may enter an adjustment phase. The A - share market may experience profit - taking and volume contraction after breaking through the high point, and the bond market opportunities may be driven by the central bank's bond - buying restart and weakening fundamentals [2][3]. - The unexpectedly strong inflation data in the US has put pressure on precious metals, and the short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - The unexpected rise in US PPI has caused copper prices to oscillate at a high level. The divergence between hawks and doves within the Fed on interest rate cuts and the supply disruption of copper mines will affect copper prices [7][8]. - The unexpected PPI data in the US has hit the market's confidence in interest rate cuts, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate. The improvement in the fundamentals of aluminum is expected to strengthen, providing support for the price [9][10]. - The alumina market is in a stalemate, with both bullish and bearish factors coexisting, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [11]. - The cooling of interest rate cut expectations and the increase in domestic inventories have put pressure on zinc prices, which are expected to maintain a small - scale adjustment [12]. - The approaching delivery has led to an increase in lead inventories, and the lead price is expected to oscillate below 17,000 yuan [13]. - The weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations, the double - weak supply - demand fundamentals, and the lack of capital attention will cause tin prices to maintain a small - scale adjustment at a high level [15]. - The marginal relaxation of supply has caused industrial silicon to oscillate and weaken, and the short - term futures price is expected to enter a weak and oscillating rhythm [16][17]. - There is a lack of new short - term positive factors for lithium carbonate, and the long - and short - term players are competing around the resource end, resulting in an oscillating price [18][19]. - The nickel market is affected by the repeated macro - expectations and is expected to oscillate [20]. - The outcome of the US - Russia talks is awaited, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [21]. - The increase in steel inventories has caused steel prices to oscillate and weaken [22]. - The iron ore market is affected by supply and demand factors and is expected to oscillate [24]. - As the market sentiment cools, the soybean and rapeseed meal may enter an oscillating adjustment [25][26]. - The decline in India's palm oil imports in July may lead to a slightly stronger oscillating trend of palm oil [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: The US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, reaching a three - year high, and 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. After the data release, the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September was completely reversed, and the probability of no interest rate cut rose to 7%. The dollar index rose to 98.2, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.28% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose and then fell, with the trading volume of the two markets reaching 2.31 trillion yuan. The bond market adjusted again after a brief recovery, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields falling to 1.73% and 1.98% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce. The unexpected strength of the US PPI in July dampened the expectations of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on precious metal prices [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated around 79,000 yuan, and LME copper encountered resistance and fell back at 9800 yuan. The Codelco mine accident will result in a loss of 2 - 3 million tons of copper production this year. The unexpected rise in US PPI has slightly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts, and copper prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation [7][8]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly. The unexpected PPI data in the US hit the market's confidence in interest rate cuts, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 2.08%. The market is in a stalemate, with both bullish and bearish factors coexisting, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. The unexpected strength of the US PPI dampened the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the zinc price is expected to maintain a small - scale adjustment [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. As the delivery approaches, the inventory has increased, and the lead price is expected to oscillate below 17,000 yuan [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated weakly during the day and continued to fall at night. The weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations, the double - weak supply - demand fundamentals, and the lack of capital attention will cause tin prices to maintain a small - scale adjustment at a high level [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon maintained an oscillation. The supply has marginally relaxed, and the short - term futures price is expected to enter a weak and oscillating rhythm [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated. The raw material prices rose, and the long - and short - term players are competing around the resource end. There is a lack of new short - term positive factors, and the price is expected to oscillate [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated weakly. The US upstream inflation pressure has increased, and the nickel market is affected by the repeated macro - expectations and is expected to oscillate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The US - Russia talks are imminent, and the final price trend depends on the negotiation results. The oil price is expected to oscillate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the total inventory increased significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate and weaken [22]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is affected by the off - season and manufacturing needs. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean and rapeseed meal futures fell. The US soybean production is affected by weather and export sales. As the market sentiment cools, the soybean and rapeseed meal may enter an oscillating adjustment [25][26]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil futures fell. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased significantly. The palm oil price may oscillate strongly in the short term [27][28].
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250815
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-15 02:03