中辉有色观点-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the US PPI exceeding expectations has dampened interest - rate cut expectations, causing short - term declines in precious metals and base metals. However, in the long run, factors such as global monetary policy easing, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand dynamics support the upward trend of some metals. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, while zinc is expected to decline due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][3]. - For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, although there are some short - term negative factors, long - term fundamentals still support a bullish view. For lithium carbonate, short - term factors such as fundamentals, funds, and sentiment support its rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Inflation exceeding expectations again dampened interest - rate cut expectations, and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, gold and silver prices declined [2]. - Basic Logic: The US July PPI was far above expectations, with the year - on - year increase in July rising from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest since February. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range for silver is 9150 - 9400, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper prices declined under pressure, breaking through the 79,000 - yuan mark [6]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. Currently in the consumption off - season, demand will gradually pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the copper market is in a tight balance throughout the year [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening interest - rate cut expectations. With overseas inventory accumulation in the off - season and relatively tight domestic social inventories, copper prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions at high prices. In the long term, copper prices are expected to rise [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc prices were in a narrow - range consolidation, with long and short forces in a stalemate [9]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is increasing. In the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. Domestic inventories are increasing, while overseas LME zinc inventories are decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for more macro - level guidance. In the long term, short - selling opportunities can be considered when prices are high [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices faced pressure in rebounding, and alumina prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, inventories are rising, and the downstream industry is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with a loose supply - demand situation in the short term [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices declined under pressure, and stainless steel prices were also under pressure [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing slightly. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure may reappear [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, and finally closed slightly higher [20]. - Industrial Logic: Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, inventory has only increased slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. Supply - side rumors of production halts may lead to a short - term supply - demand mismatch [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: With the continued speculation of supply - side production halts, long positions can be held in the range of 84,000 - 86,500 [22].