Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock market may experience intensified volatility after continuous gains, but the general direction is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with interest rates generally trending downward in the long - term. [3][6] - Metal prices show different trends. Copper prices may be strongly volatile in the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, zinc prices have a large downward risk, lead prices have a short - term decline risk, nickel prices have a callback pressure, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. [10][11][13] - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all face certain uncertainties and are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment. [25][27][28] - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber prices should be observed neutrally, oil prices have a good left - hand layout opportunity, methanol prices are recommended to be observed, urea prices can be considered for long positions at low levels, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean meal, vegetable meal, oils, sugar, and cotton all have different trends and trading strategies, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [56][57][58] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - News: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15; 152 energy - storage enterprises advocate against involution; the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issue a joint statement on the market fluctuations of stablecoins; the US PPI in July increased significantly compared with the forecast and the previous value. [2] - Basis ratio of stock index futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are given. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may be volatile in the short - term, but the general direction is to go long on dips. [3] Treasury Bond - Market: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. [4] - News: The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting and believes there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut; the UK's GDP in the second quarter increased better than expected. [4] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. [5][6] - Strategy: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and the interest rate is expected to trend downward in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. [6] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21. [7] - Market outlook: The US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were cautious, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, considering factors such as US debt interest payments and government intervention, the Fed is likely to implement further easing, and it is recommended to wait for price corrections to go long. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are given. [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the slowdown of the domestic equity market, the copper price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The copper price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with support from tight raw material supply and pressure from increased supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given. [10] Aluminum - Market: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the slowdown of domestic inventory accumulation, the aluminum price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support from low domestic inventory and strong external demand, and pressure from weak downstream consumption and unstable trade situations. The reference operating ranges for domestic and LME aluminum are given. [11] Zinc - Market: The zinc price declined on Thursday. The zinc ore is in a loose supply situation, the domestic zinc ingot is in a surplus situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is gradually receding. The zinc price still has a large downward risk. [12][13] Lead - Market: The lead price declined on Thursday. The lead ore inventory at ports increased in August, the production rates of primary and secondary lead increased, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased again. The downstream consumption is under pressure, and the short - term lead price has a certain decline risk. [14] Nickel - Market: The nickel price declined and adjusted on Thursday. Affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the market's interest rate cut expectations, the non - ferrous metal sector was under pressure. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron market sentiment improved, but the surplus pressure still existed. The refined nickel spot trading was still sluggish. The short - term nickel price may have a callback pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given. [15] Tin - Market: The tin price declined and adjusted on August 15. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end is still under raw material supply pressure in the short - term. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and LME tin are given. [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, and the futures price also increased slightly. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased this week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply improvement is the focus of the market, and it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the right entry point. The reference operating range for the futures contract is given. [18] Alumina - Market: The alumina index declined on August 14. The domestic and overseas ore supply is disturbed, but the alumina production capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to short at high levels when the short - term market sentiment cools down. The reference operating range for the domestic futures contract is given, and factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies need to be concerned. [19] Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel futures price declined on Thursday. The spot prices in some markets also declined, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased, and the market trading sentiment was not high. The stainless steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. [20][21] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The futures contract of cast aluminum alloy declined on Thursday. The spot price was stable, and the downstream demand was mainly rigid. The inventory increased slightly. The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. [22] Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on Thursday. The export volume decreased slightly this week, and the demand for rebar decreased significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of both is in a marginal increase state, and the steel price may decline if the demand cannot be effectively repaired. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of cost. [24][25] Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore futures price declined on Thursday. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron water production increased slightly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price may be adjusted slightly in the short - term, and the contradiction between high iron water production and weak terminal demand needs to be concerned. [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment cooled down. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on factors such as anti - involution policies and real estate demand. [28] - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash increased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase space is limited. [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined on August 14. The market is affected by factors such as anti - involution and supply - side policies, and it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can choose the right opportunity. The manganese silicon industry is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand for ferrosilicon and the black sector may weaken in the future. [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of industrial silicon increased on Thursday. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the implementation of anti - involution policies needs to be concerned. [34][35] - Polysilicon: The futures price of polysilicon declined on Thursday. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the impact of warehouse receipts on the price needs to be concerned. [36][37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. The long and short sides have different views. The operating rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased. The rubber price has risen a lot in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations. [39][40][42] Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, while INE crude oil price declined. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore increased, and the fuel oil inventory decreased. The oil price is considered to be undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. [43] Methanol - Market: The methanol futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the port inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. [44] Urea - Market: The urea futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizer and export, and the inventory is still at a medium - high level. The urea price is undervalued, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels. [45] Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost end has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate upward with the cost end. [46][47] PVC - Market: The PVC futures price declined on Thursday. The cost end decreased, the production increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The ethylene glycol futures price declined on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The valuation is relatively high, and the price may decline in the short - term. [49] PTA - Market: The PTA futures price declined on Thursday. The supply may increase in August, the demand is about to end the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate. The PXN spread has upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX when the peak season demand improves. [50][51] p - Xylene - Market: The p - xylene futures price declined on Thursday. The production increased, the downstream PTA short - term overhaul increased, and the inventory may decrease. The valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil in the peak season. [52] Polyethylene - Market: The polyethylene futures price declined. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, the cost end has support, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [53] Polypropylene - Market: The polypropylene futures price declined. The production may increase due to the rebound of refining profit, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost end may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July. [54] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price fluctuated on Thursday. The market is stable, and the price is expected to be stable today. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and it is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity for far - month contracts. [56] Eggs - Market: The egg price was mostly stable on Thursday. The supply is large, and the price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term egg price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds. [57] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The USDA's reduction of the soybean planting area has a positive impact, the import cost of soybeans has increased, the price of rapeseed meal has declined, and the price of soybean meal has increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal surplus situation, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to factors such as supply pressure and Sino - US tariffs. [58][59] Oils - Market: The prices of the three major domestic oils declined on Thursday. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, Indonesia has distributed a large amount of biodiesel, and the import of Indian vegetable oil has changed. The oils are supported by policies and low inventory, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view the price fluctuation. [60][61][62] Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The international sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic import supply will increase in the future, and the price is expected to decline. [63] Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The USDA report is positive, and the Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to domestic cotton. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. [64][65][66]
五矿期货文字早评-20250815
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-15 02:02