宝城期货国债期货早报-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on treasury bond futures is that they will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with limited upside and downside potential. For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with the core logic being a structurally loose monetary policy [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The long - term upward logic of treasury bonds is relatively solid due to supportive long - term monetary policies and low probability of interest rate hikes. However, in the short - term, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed by factors such as strong macro - economic resilience, eased external risks, loan subsidy policies for consumption, and rising risk appetite in the stock market. Still, treasury bond futures have strong support due to the rapid recovery of market interest rates and the anchoring effect of policy rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is a structurally loose monetary policy [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly declined. Long - term monetary policies are supportive, making the long - term upward logic of treasury bonds solid. But in the short - term, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Treasury bond futures still have strong support, and they will mainly fluctuate in the short - term with limited upside and downside [5].