Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - In July, the social financing scale showed a seasonal decline after the cross - quarter period, with an increment of 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant drop from the previous month. The net financing of government bonds was 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year, strongly supporting the social financing. Credit financing shrank significantly, with a decrease of 426.3 billion yuan in the month and an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not enough to make up for the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - In July, M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high, mainly due to the low - base effect, improvement of enterprise cash flow, and the conversion of deposits to investments. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Although the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - The new RMB loans were unexpectedly - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. On August 13, the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy for personal consumption loans was released to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 7 - Month Social Financing Seasonal Decline - Social financing scale: In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant decline from the previous month. It mainly relied on the net financing of government bonds (1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year). Credit financing decreased by 426.3 billion yuan in the month, an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not sufficient to fill the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - M1 and M2: M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 3.2% (previous value 3.7%), but the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - New RMB loans: The new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. The government released a policy to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17].
固定收益研究：7月信贷偏弱怎么看
Great Wall Securities·2025-08-15 02:17