中辉黑色观点-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bullish: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Silicomanganese [1] - Short-term Bullish Participation: Iron Ore [1] - Cautiously Bearish: Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: High iron - water production due to good profits, weak demand, supply - side contraction expectations from un - implemented parade - related production restrictions, and raw material disturbances lead to expected mid - term range fluctuations [1][4]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Production and apparent consumption decline, inventory slightly increases, export profit drops, and production restrictions during the parade support the market [1][4]. - Iron Ore: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories, and restocking by steel mills make the ore price firm [1][8]. - Coke: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction from parade - related production restrictions, mid - term strength supported by news, but short - term possible correction due to high position and trading restrictions [1][11]. - Coking Coal: Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment may be affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - Silicomanganese: No prominent supply - demand contradiction, increased enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the alloy price [1][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Weaker fundamentals, increased factory inventory, and high delivery inventory. The price may face correction pressure in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Market Characteristics: Obvious off - season features, range fluctuations [3]. - Rebar: High - level iron - water production, weak demand, mid - term range fluctuations, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Stable fundamentals, reduced export profit, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show different degrees of decline, and there are corresponding changes in basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Market Situation: Steel mills' restocking makes the ore price firm [7]. - Fundamentals: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories [1][8]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of iron ore decline, and there are changes in spreads, basis, and other indicators [6]. 3.3 Coke - Market Situation: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [10]. - Fundamentals: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction, relatively balanced supply - demand, and stable production and inventory [1][11]. - Price Data: Futures prices decline, spot prices have mixed changes, and there are corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - Market Situation: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [13]. - Fundamentals: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - Price Data: Futures prices decline, spot prices remain stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators [13]. 3.5 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Situation: No fundamental drivers, follow market sentiment [16]. - Silicomanganese: Improved enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the price [1][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Increased factory inventory, high delivery inventory, short - term correction pressure, and medium - term price under pressure [1][18]. - Price Data: Futures prices decline, spot prices are relatively stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other data [16].