金融期货早评-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic Market: Policy support in the livelihood and consumption sectors boosts market confidence, but demand recovery is gradual. The release of July economic data is crucial, and if the data weakens, incremental policies may be introduced [2]. - Overseas Market: The Fed's policy stance is divided, with most officials leaning hawkish. The uncertainty of a September rate cut has increased due to the unexpected PPI data. The dollar index may oscillate around 98, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20 [2][4]. - Equity Market: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations [6]. - Commodity Market - Precious Metals: Gold and silver may be bullish in the long - term but are in a short - term adjustment phase. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - Base Metals: Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and other base metals show different trends. Some are expected to be strong in the medium - term, while others are in a state of shock or decline [14][15][18]. - Black Metals: Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and coal and coke prices may be affected by policies and demand [28][31][35]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events, and the market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting. Other energy and chemical products such as LPG, PTA, and ethylene glycol have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [39][44][50]. - Agricultural Products: For pigs, it is advisable to short on rallies. For oilseeds and oils, there are different investment strategies such as buying on dips for far - month contracts [72][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Attention should be paid to the release of July economic data. The US inflation is high, and the Fed's policy stance is divided, increasing the uncertainty of a September rate cut [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The short - term trend of the dollar index is uncertain, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20. Key data to watch include US retail sales [4]. - Stock Index: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations. An insurance strategy of holding stocks and buying put options is recommended [6]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is dominated by sentiment. It is advisable not to short and to try to catch a rebound with a small position, while setting stop - losses for long positions [6]. - Container Shipping: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and may decline slightly in the medium - term if there are no sudden events [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The market adjusted due to the unexpected PPI data. The long - term outlook is bullish, but short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [10][12]. - Copper: The price declined slightly due to the stock market and the stable dollar index. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to make low - level purchases [13][14]. - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may rise when entering the peak season. Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [15]. - Zinc: The price declined due to the strengthening of the dollar index. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [16][18]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, and the upward momentum is limited. The fundamentals provide limited support [19]. - Tin: The price declined slightly, following the trend of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and its downside is limited in the long - term. Polysilicon is affected by supply and demand and policy, and it is advisable to pay attention to industrial policies [22][23]. - Lead: The price is weak due to the dollar index and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The market sentiment has cooled, and the prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited [27][28]. - Iron Ore: The price declined due to the fall in coking coal prices. It is expected to oscillate, and the supply is neutral in the short - term [29][31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is affected by policies and demand. The medium - and long - term outlook is not pessimistic, but short - term risks should be noted [33][35]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: The prices follow the trend of coal. The short - term outlook is affected by market sentiment, and the long - term outlook is related to the real estate market and supply [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price rose slightly overnight. The market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting, and the upside is limited due to seasonal factors [39][40]. - LPG: The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight improvement. The overall situation remains loose [43][44]. - PTA - PX: The prices follow the cost trend. PX supply may increase, and PTA processing fees are at a low level. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee [45][47]. - Ethylene Glycol - Bottle Chip: The price of ethylene glycol oscillates, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The bottle chip price follows the cost trend, and the processing fee is range - bound [49][50]. - Methanol: The 09 contract is weak due to port inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [51][52]. - PP: The supply and demand situation has little change. It mainly follows the macroscopic sentiment and coking coal price [54][55]. - PE: The supply and demand are increasing. The near - term supply - demand pressure is not large, but it depends on the demand recovery [56][57]. - PVC: It should be shorted. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [58][59]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and has a low - level supply and weak demand [60][61]. - Asphalt: The supply is stable, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is weakly adjusted. The long - term demand may improve [63]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: The prices are volatile. Soda ash supply is high, glass demand and supply are in a weak balance, and caustic soda demand may improve in the peak season [64][67]. - Paper Pulp: The fundamentals have improved marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider taking profits when the price breaks the 5 - day moving average [68]. - Propylene: The upward momentum of the spot and futures prices is weak. The supply is high, and the demand changes little [69][70]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The supply is high, and it is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [72]. - Oilseeds: It is recommended to buy far - month double - meal contracts on dips due to the expected supply gap [73][74]. - Oils: The far - month supply gap supports the strong operation of oils [75]