沪胶震荡偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With the postponement of the Sino - US tariff talks, the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, a slight year - on - year decline in the output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries, and better - than - expected sales in the domestic auto market, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - level - The Sino - US tariff risk is temporarily lifted as the two countries decided to suspend high - tariff implementation for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - The "dovish" power within the Fed is increasing, with Trump nominating officials to promote rate cuts. The market expects a 91.5% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September, which improves the macro sentiment and lifts the rubber futures price [3]. Supply - side - Due to low new rubber planting areas in the past decade, the actual output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries in 2025 has been declining year - on - year. In June 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 91.15 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5 tons (5.20%). From January to June 2025, the total production was 473.92 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.25 tons (2.21%) [4]. Demand - side - In July 2025, the domestic auto market showed a non - off - season performance. The production and sales of automobiles were 259.1 and 259.3 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively [5]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 83,000, the second - highest level in the same period in the past 8 years. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [5].