宝城期货资讯早班车-20250815

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% [1] - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month [1] - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively, up from 5.9% and 1.1% in the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - In July 2025, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with non - bank deposits increasing significantly, indicating a trend of residents' deposits moving to financial products [2] - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated again as the US July PPI soared to 3.3% year - on - year, and Fed officials opposed a large - scale rate cut [2] 2.2 Metals - On August 14, international precious metal futures generally closed down, but US Treasury Secretary's call for rate cuts supported the precious metal market [4] - A Chinese research team developed high - energy - density soft - pack cells and module batteries [4] - Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves increased to $686.4 billion as of August 8 [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - DCE restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures contracts from August 15 [6] - A Shandong coking enterprise plans to cut production, expected to affect about 41,000 tons of coke output [6] - As of early August, the price of coking coal increased by 3.64% month - on - month, reaching a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 14, US oil futures rose due to geopolitical risks, despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [9] - In August, the international crude oil market showed a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Russia - Ukraine situation [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of early August, the price of soybean meal increased, while the prices of live pigs and cotton decreased [11] - The central government allocated 1.146 billion yuan for agricultural disaster prevention and relief [11] - The overall food safety situation was stable in the first half of 2025 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On August 14, the central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan [13] - On August 15, the central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations to inject medium - and long - term funds [13] 3.2 Key News - As of August 14, the net inflow of bond ETFs this year reached 300.308 billion yuan, with the total scale exceeding 536.342 billion yuan [15] - Local state - owned assets have been actively acquiring listed companies this year, aiming at industry integration and upgrading [17] - The sales performance of real estate enterprises showed signs of stopping decline, and the new housing market is expected to stabilize further [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Bank - to - bank bond yields generally rose, and treasury bond futures closed down [19] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [19] - The yields of European and US bonds generally increased [22][23] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 25 points, and the US dollar index rose 0.42% [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the bond market to fluctuate and then break through downward, possibly in the fourth quarter [25] - CICC Fixed - Income is optimistic about the domestic bond market, expecting bond yields to break through downward [25] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the bond market has no major positive factors in the short term but limited risk of significant adjustment [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - On Thursday, the A - share market fell, with over 4,600 stocks declining [28] - The Hong Kong stock market also fell, and the number of margin trading investors reached a new high this year [28][29] - There are rumors about a possible minimum market - value threshold for Hong Kong IPOs, but the trend of A + H listings is expected to continue [28]