国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250815

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on August 15, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, with different products showing different trends such as weakening, oscillating, or having support [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. On August 14, the price dropped to $824 per ton. Suggest focusing on terminal order repairs starting from late August, and PXN has short - term support [5][8][13]. - PTA: Processing fees are at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The polyester start - up rate has increased to 89.4%. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, and consider a 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage [5][10][13]. - MEG: The trend is weakly oscillating. There are two sets of MEG devices in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons that are currently shut down for 1 - 2 days. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, operate the 9 - 1 spread within the - 50 to 0 range, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [5][10][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises remains high, and the order situation is weak [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within the week. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased. In the short term, there is a correction, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the valuation range [19][20][21]. Asphalt - The shipment in East China has improved locally. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The weekly output has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][29][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The macro environment has limited changes, the cost has decreased due to falling oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [36][37][39]. PP - Short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious, and the trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is 0. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the cost [41][42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The trend strength is 1. The cost support is strong, and there is an expectation of demand in the peak season, especially with the expected production of 3.6 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [45][47][48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The price is affected by supply contraction expectations, tightened domestic circulation sources, and marginal improvement in demand, but the rebound space is limited [50][52][53]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1. The domestic float glass price is weakly stable, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing due to the decline in the futures market [56][57]. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the port market is weakly oscillating, while the inland market has continued to rise [59][62][63]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the short - term downward pressure is due to the decline in the commodity index and increased fundamental pressure [64][66][67]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The trend strength is 0. The downstream demand for styrene is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to positions that compress styrene profit [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend strength is - 1. The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is stable, with a light and stable oscillation expected in the short term [71][73][74]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is 0. The expected price of Saudi CP has decreased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [77][82][83]. Propylene - Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is 0. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the spread between propylene and relevant contracts has changed [78][82]. PVC - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86][87]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night - session oscillates, and the short - term weakness continues. The trend strength is 0. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fluctuation intensifies, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in oscillating consolidation, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. The freight rate index has declined, and the trading volume and position of relevant futures have changed [90].