中原期货晨会纪要-20250815

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, injecting medium - term liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF renewal. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation has been frustrated due to high PPI data. Various industries are facing different situations, such as the shipping industry getting regulatory relaxation, the banking industry promoting "anti - involution" measures, and the express delivery industry showing growth in business volume and revenue [9][10][11]. - Different futures varieties have different trends. For example, some agricultural products are in a state of weak supply and demand, and energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and seasonal demand. Industrial metals are affected by factors such as supply guidance and inventory, and the option - financial market is affected by market sentiment and macro - data [6][14][19][20][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chemicals - Price Changes: On August 15, 2025, compared with August 14, 2025, the prices of most chemical products changed. For example, methanol rose by 4.359% (from 2,340.00 to 2,442.00), while 20 - number rubber fell by 0.080% (from 12,490.00 to 12,480.00) [6]. 3.2 Macro - News - Central Bank Operations: The central bank carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, and the cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the renewal amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF renewal after 300 billion yuan of MLF matures this month [9]. - Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation: The US July PPI soared, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0.9%, frustrating the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [9]. - Other News: The State Council added a new K - type visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents. The National Data Bureau will introduce more than 10 systems such as data property rights. The financial regulatory authorities in some regions advocate "anti - involution" in the banking industry. The US President Trump relaxed commercial space regulations. The US Treasury Secretary clarified that he was not pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The express delivery business volume and revenue in July increased year - on - year. The first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered the application test [9][10][11]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the downward trend remains [14]. - Sugar: The sugar futures price is in a high - level shock. The US Department of Agriculture has raised the new - year sugar production forecast, but the concerns about Brazilian production and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation support the raw sugar price. It is recommended to operate in the range of 5,650 - 5,680 yuan/ton [14]. - Corn: The corn futures price showed a rebound with a reduction in positions. The supply side has limited remaining grain in the Northeast, but the low - price listing of new - season corn in Jiangsu has a suppressing effect. The demand side is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to participate in the short - term rebound near the support level of 2,270 yuan [14]. - Pigs: The national pig price was stable with a slight increase. The supply side has enhanced resistance to price drops, and the demand side has improved. The futures market is in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [14]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price is stable. The spot market may rebound due to downstream stocking demand, but the futures market may fall to repair the basis. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct reverse spreads between months [14][15]. - Cotton: ICE US cotton futures rose and then fell. Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The cotton market sentiment is cautious, and the spot market has slightly improved. The cotton price is supported by factors such as tight commercial inventory and the conversion of demand from off - season to peak season. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [17]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda decreased this week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of the demand peak season in September, the demand has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [19][20]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is cautious, and the six - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The iron - water daily output has increased, and the decline of coking coal and coke prices is expected to slow down [20]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continued to oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of favorable drivers. The aluminum inventory has exceeded 550,000 tons, and the price is expected to continue high - level adjustment [20]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina has increased, the demand is relatively stable, and the spot price has limited upward momentum. It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the supply interference of bauxite [20]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The rebar night - session price fell, and the inventory increased. The hot - rolled coil production and demand both increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. The decline of the black - series is expected to slow down, and it will oscillate and adjust in the short term [20]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese fell. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased last week, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [20][21]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate both strengthened. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand for cathode materials is also expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the support level of 85,000 yuan and the pressure level of 87,000 yuan. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [21]. 3.3.4 Option - Financial - Stock Index Options: On August 14, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The trading volume of the stock market exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days. Different stock - index futures and options have different trends, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities and volatility strategies [21][23]. - Stock Indexes: The A - share market has been rising driven by liquidity, but there are signs of divergence and differentiation. The market may have short - term shock and pull - back pressure. It is not advisable to chase high, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips [23][25].