融达期货生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig supply is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weight, providing some support for pig prices. If farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. Considering the slight premium of the November contract over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 13, the registered pig warehouse receipts were 430 lots [2]. - In the short - term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 5,348 lots today, with a position of approximately 66,200 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. Based on piglet data, the overall pig slaughter volume will increase oscillatory in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future market, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think, limited increase in future slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak pig consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by farmers), and abundant supply makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weight, providing some support for pig prices. If farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. Considering the slight premium of the November contract over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 13, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.81 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan or 0.58%. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.47 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan or 1.2% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 14,295 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.9%; the 03 contract was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 05 contract was 13,995 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.25%; the 07 contract was 14,380 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.24%; the 09 contract was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.11%; the 11 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 1.3% [6].