五矿期货农产品早报-20250815

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report mainly analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - Important Information: On Thursday, the USDA's reduction of the planting area continued to be bullish, and the cost of soybean imports increased. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable, with sales weak after a rapid price increase and good提货. The downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.37 days. Last week, 2177500 tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2369500 tons are expected to be crushed. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be favorable in the next two weeks. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - Trading Strategy: The cost of soybean imports is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in September. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oils - Important Information: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel. In July, India's palm oil imports decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The total vegetable oil imports increased slightly, and the inventory at the end of July increased by 150000 tons month - on - month but decreased by 1.2 million tons year - on - year. On Thursday, domestic oils prices fell, affected by factors such as the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy and rumors of poor palm oil exports from Indonesia [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentals such as the US biodiesel policy draft, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be supported in the 7 - 9 month period, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high near - term palm oil production, undetermined RVO rules, and macro and demand - side adjustments [9]. Sugar - Important Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated slightly, with the January contract closing at 5659 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. India plans to transfer 4 - 5 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in the new crushing season starting in October [11]. - Trading Strategy: In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. The spot import profit outside the quota is at a five - year high, and the futures price is over - valued. With the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the January contract closing at 14155 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 15 yuan/ton. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production decreased by 390000 tons, with the US production decreasing by 300000 tons and China's increasing by 110000 tons. Global consumption decreased by 30000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 740000 tons [14]. - Trading Strategy: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up cotton prices at home and abroad. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also positive for domestic cotton prices. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. In the short term, cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15]. Eggs - Important Information: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas slightly adjusted. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.03 yuan/jin. The supply was stable with a slight shortage in some areas, and the downstream digestion speed was generally average. Traders were cautious and mostly in a wait - and - see attitude [17]. - Trading Strategy: The supply of eggs is large due to the continuous increase in newly - laid hens and limited culling of old hens. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures price has a premium. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18]. Pigs - Important Information: The domestic pig prices showed mixed trends yesterday, with the average price in Henan increasing by 0.05 yuan to 13.86 yuan/kg and that in Sichuan remaining unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. The market sales were stable, and there was limited room for price increases by breeding groups. Some areas showed resistance to price cuts [20]. - Trading Strategy: The continuous decline in the spot price is in contrast to the futures price. The release of current inventory helps to relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and the high fat - to - standard pig price difference provides room for future stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, but do not chase the price too high. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse spreads [21].