铅锌日评：区间整理-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, there is no obvious contradiction, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to be range - bound [1] - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply increase, demand is in the off - season, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas LME zinc inventory decline provides some support, with short - term zinc prices expected to be range - bound [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the premium in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 45,616 lots, up 57.64%; the open interest was 51,370 lots, up 3.94%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.89, up 51.67% [1] - LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipts inventory was 61,784 tons, down 1.20% [1] - The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 1,990 US dollars/ton, up 0.10%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.43, down 1.04% [1] Industry News - The action plan for strengthening and extending the industrial chain of key advantageous industries in Guangxi's manufacturing industry aims to build a "recycling - disassembly - regeneration - utilization" industrial system and promote the recycling of lead batteries [1] - On August 13, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 42.01 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 153,848 lots, an increase of 1,928 lots [1] Fundamental Analysis - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1] - The price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise, some recyclers hoard goods, and some smelters cut production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. However, as the inventory of electrolytic lead plants decreases, the acceptance of high - priced recycled lead improves, and the production of recycled lead is gradually recovering [1] - Due to high temperatures and weak demand, the operation rate of some battery enterprises decreased last week. After previous stockpiling by dealers, they are now consuming inventory. The peak - season demand is average, and downstream buyers are cautious when lead prices rise [1] Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,440 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; the premium in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 78,030 lots, down 0.40%; the open interest was 80,798 lots, down 6.03%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.97, up 5.99% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 17,097 tons, up 5.59% [1] - The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,842.50 US dollars/ton, up 1.10%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.91, down 1.62% [1] Industry News - According to 29Metals' Q2 report, its zinc concentrate production in Q2 was 12,300 metric tons, a 28% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The annual production guidance for 2025 is 60,000 - 70,000 metric tons [1] - On August 13, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 1.5 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 194,301 lots, an increase of 1,359 lots [1] Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees are rising. It is expected that the processing fees for zinc concentrates in August will continue to increase, weakening the cost support [1] - At the beginning of last week, when zinc prices were low, downstream buyers purchased more. As zinc prices rebounded, the restocking sentiment weakened [1] - Domestically, the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. Overseas, the continuous decline in LME zinc inventory provides some support [1]