Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Geekplus (2590 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 26.7, representing a potential upside of 42.3% from the current price of HKD 18.76 [1][3]. Core Insights - Geekplus is positioned as a rising star in the global AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) market for warehouse automation, with a unique presence in the Hong Kong market. The company has over 800 end customers across 40 countries, with an expected overseas revenue contribution of 72% in 2024 [1]. - The AMR solutions market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from RMB 39 billion in 2024 to RMB 162 billion by 2029, driven by an increase in AMR penetration from 8% to 20% of total warehouse automation solutions revenue [7]. - Geekplus holds a 9% market share in warehouse fulfillment revenue, ranking first globally, attributed to its modular design solutions that integrate easily into existing customer systems, minimizing operational disruptions [7]. - The report highlights the cost-saving and efficiency improvements experienced by Geekplus customers, exemplified by YesAsia, which saved approximately USD 10 million in costs and improved order accuracy to 99.99% after implementing Geekplus AMR solutions [7]. Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue for Geekplus is expected to grow from RMB 2,143 million in FY23A to RMB 5,788 million by FY27E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2024 to 2027 [2][8]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive starting in FY26E, with estimates of RMB 112 million in FY25E and RMB 673.5 million in FY27E [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin improvement from 17.7% in FY22A to 39.0% by FY27E, indicating enhanced profitability [9].
极智嘉-w（02590）：全球仓储自动化AMR领域新星，港股稀缺标的