能源化策略报：原油?差和绝对值同步回落，化?受原料拖累，??格局平平

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests that investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of weakening volatility, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA and IEA hold an oversupply view of the future crude oil market, which has dampened market sentiment. The absolute value of oil prices has dropped to the lowest since June 5, and the monthly spread, taking Brent as an example, has fallen to the lowest since May. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains [2]. - When raw material prices fluctuate significantly, the supply - demand relationship of chemical products becomes secondary. Most chemical products' basis has slightly increased after the sharp decline on August 14. The operating rates of polyester downstream industries and the benzene - ethylene chain have improved to some extent. Caustic soda is the strongest - performing variety on August 14 [3]. - Overall, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be in a state of weakening volatility. Each specific product has its own market characteristics and trends, and investors are advised to use a weakening volatility mindset for investment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will influence the future sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC + production increases have led to supply pressure, and crude oil inventories face dual pressures. The short - term outlook is volatile, and the market should pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations [9]. - Logic: OPEC + production increases have prevented seasonal declines in crude oil inventories in the past two months. Overseas gasoline inventories are high, and future crude oil inventories will face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and accelerated OPEC + production increases. If the meeting is optimistic about ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: Asphalt futures prices are weakly volatile. The main contract closed at 3472 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions vary [9]. - Logic: EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations. After the meeting between Russian and US leaders, the market will refocus on negative factors. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is high, driving refinery operations to return. Demand for asphalt is still not optimistic, and its current valuation is relatively high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly volatile, with the main contract closing at 2700 yuan/ton [9]. - Logic: EIA has lowered oil price expectations and raised OPEC production forecasts. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. China has raised the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak. Although the cracking spread is high, the driving factors are weakening [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly, with the main contract closing at 3449 yuan/ton [11]. - Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is affected by the increase in diesel cracking spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. 3.1.5 Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, methanol's port inventory continues to accumulate, and it fluctuates downward; urea is temporarily undisturbed and the market is weak; ethylene glycol's cost support weakens and port inventory accumulates; etc. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spreads of different varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.04 [38]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also show different trends. For example, asphalt's basis is 168 with a change of 31, and the number of warehouse receipts is 73550 [39]. - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 220 with a change of 110 [40].