海通证券晨报-20250815

Group 1: Tencent Holdings - The report highlights Tencent's revenue and profit exceeding expectations, driven by strong advertising performance and deepening game strategies, with AI enhancing overall efficiency [2][3][37] - For Q2 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with adjusted operating profit of 69.2 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year [2] - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 733.8 billion, 797.3 billion, and 871.3 billion yuan respectively, with Non-IFRS net profit estimates of 255.3 billion, 282.5 billion, and 314.3 billion yuan [2][38] Group 2: Mao Geping - The company anticipates a net profit of 665-675 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%-37%, slightly above expectations [5][6] - Mao Geping's revenue for H1 2025 is projected to be between 2.57 billion and 2.60 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.4%-31.9% year-on-year [6][29] - The brand has seen significant online growth, with over 70% increase during the 618 shopping festival and over 50% growth on Douyin in H1 2025 [7][30] Group 3: Logistics and Warehousing - The report discusses the "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery industry, which have helped stabilize competition and ensure network reliability [8][9] - The regulatory efforts by the postal administration have led to a recovery in market share for leading companies and a rebound in single-ticket revenue [9][20] - The report indicates that the current "anti-involution" measures are expected to ease competitive pressures in the short term while promoting healthy competition in the long term [9][21]