Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - The report is cautious about the trend of Treasury bond futures but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and recommends considering going long on stock index futures. It also believes that the long - term bull trend of precious metals may continue and suggests going long on gold futures. For other commodities, it provides specific market analyses and corresponding investment strategies [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Given the current macro - economic situation, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment, make the report optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and recommend considering going long on stock index futures [7][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.13%, and the silver main contract fell 0.15%. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, central bank gold - buying, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull trend of precious metals may continue, and going long on gold futures is recommended [11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures fell significantly. Policy currently dominates the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium - term, the price of finished products will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity suppress the price of steel products. The possible steel industry stability - promoting policy is a potential positive factor. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a significant correction. Policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The high daily output of molten iron supports the price, but the supply has increased since April. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong but may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply due to the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Fundamentally, the policy on coal production inspection has reduced the supply. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The demand has slightly recovered, but the supply is still high, and the high inventory pressures the market. In the short - term, the supply may be in surplus, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into losses [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. The CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions, the Baker Hughes report showed a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs, and the IEA monthly report raised the supply forecast and lowered the demand forecast. The market focus is on the US - Russia talks, and the short - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil market had multiple sales transactions. The spread of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil turned to a discount, and the expected large - scale inflow of arbitrage fuel oil and the increase in ARA region inventory are bearish factors. It is recommended to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell. The loss has increased, and the supply has decreased. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the market has stabilized. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of a rebound after stabilization [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract fell. The macro - market sentiment has improved, the supply is disturbed by heavy rain, and the cost support has strengthened. The demand has slightly recovered, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pullback [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand situation remains oversupplied, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply has increased, the demand has decreased, and the profit has improved. The social inventory has increased [29]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the market oscillates. In the medium - term, a bullish view is maintained. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from compound fertilizer production is increasing. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is higher than expected [30][31]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted. The supply has slightly increased, and the import has changed. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, the cost and demand support are insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Interval operations are recommended [32]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply has slightly increased, the demand has slightly improved but with limited space, the cost support from crude oil is weak, and the processing fee has recovered. It is expected to adjust and correct in the short - term, and interval participation is recommended [33][34]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The overall supply has increased, the port inventory has accumulated, but the overseas supply may decrease. The short - term supply increase may suppress the market, and interval participation is recommended, paying attention to inventory and import changes [35]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply remains at a high level, the demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [36][37]. Bottle Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle chip main contract fell. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry has increased, and the export has maintained high growth. The market is supported by inventory stability, but the main logic lies in the cost, and it is expected to oscillate with the cost [38]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract fell. The production has increased, the inventory has increased slightly, the supply has shown an upward trend, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost support and position control [39]. Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production line is stable, the inventory has increased slightly, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to go short in the short - term and pay attention to inventory and trade conditions [40]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The production has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the profit has improved. The use of imported ore may suppress the consumption and price. The market is expected to return to the spot price stability logic [41][42]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is uncertain. The port inventory is at a high level, which pressures the market. The cost support has increased, but the price rebound space is limited [43][44]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The shutdown of a mining area has raised concerns about mining rights and costs, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The short - term supply impact is limited, and the demand has increased due to the approaching peak season. The trading logic has shifted, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and avoid short - selling against the trend [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The shortage of copper concentrate, the Fed rate - cut expectation, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations support the copper price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract [48][49][50]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, the market has expectations for the resumption of tin mining in the fourth quarter, the consumption is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the market is in an oversupply pattern. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The USDA report adjusted the soybean planting area, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, the cost has increased, the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is weak. For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at high levels and then entering long positions at support levels; for soybean oil, consider exiting long positions at high levels [53][54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell. The factors include profit - taking, the possible delay of the B50 policy, the decrease in Indian imports, and the increase in Malaysian inventory. The domestic inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions [56][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed fell slightly. The supply of rapeseed in China may be tight due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to reduce long positions [59][60]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton oscillated. The USDA report showed a decrease in US and global cotton production and inventory. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, but the textile export is under pressure. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the short - term report is positive, and the price is expected to be strong [61][62]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and foreign sugar fell. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low but the import is high before October. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. Apple - The previous trading day, the apple futures fell slightly. The expected apple production has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the acquisition price of early - maturing apples has dropped. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live - pig price was stable with a slight increase. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the inventory of frozen products has increased, and the cost is low. It is recommended to consider an inverse spread strategy [70][72]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price was stable. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, the supply is expected to increase in August, the consumption is weak, and the profit is low. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 9 - 10 inverse spread [73][74]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The corn inventory has decreased, the demand is growing slightly, the supply - demand is approaching balance in the short - term, and the price is supported at a low level. The import may increase, and the new - season corn is expected to be abundant. For corn, consider virtual call options for old - season contracts; for corn starch, it follows the corn market [75][76]. Logs - The previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The expected arrival of logs has decreased significantly, the inventory is at a low level, the demand has increased, and the price has risen. The short - term bullish sentiment is supported [77][79].
西南期货早间评论-20250815
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-08-15 03:13