贵属策略：美国PPI超预期上?，贵?属短线调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the long - term trend of gold. The dominant logic in the past quarter is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of rate - cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of rate - cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence [1][4] - The expectation of a 25BP rate cut in September remains stable, and attention should be paid to Powell's remarks at the upcoming Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [1][4] - In the short term, the upward movement of gold prices may need more momentum. The spot gold price below $3500 per ounce shows relatively mild fluctuations, and there may be greater upward potential after breaking through this level. The resistance at the $40 per ounce level for silver is still significant, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In July, the US PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year, the highest level since February this year, with an expected increase of 2.5% and a previous value revised from 2.3% to 2.4%. It increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of flat. The core PPI increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.6%. It increased by 0.9% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of flat [2] - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, with an expected 228,000 and a previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000. The four - week average was 221,750, compared with a previous value of 220,750. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending August 2 was 1,953,000, with an expected 1,964,000 and a previous value revised from 1,974,000 to 1,968,000 [2] - There is a growing divergence within the Fed regarding the September rate cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly opposes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting, believing it may send an unnecessary emergency signal. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urges the Fed not to "rush" to cut rates before inflation is fully under control. US Treasury Secretary Bezant clarifies that he is not pressuring the Fed to cut rates [3] Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated weakly, and the silver price declined slightly. The main factors suppressing the market were the unexpected rise in US PPI, the decline in weekly initial and continued jobless claims, and the hawkish remarks of some Fed officials. After the decline in the domestic equity market, market risk appetite decreased, leading to a larger decline in silver [4] Outlook - In the coming week, the price range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3330 and $3500 per ounce, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $37 and $40 per ounce [7]