中信期货晨报：国内商品期货大面积飘绿，铁矿、焦煤跌幅居前-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The overseas market is facing a weak US economic fundamental. The Sino - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12, and the US CPI in July met expectations. In the future, with tariffs taking effect in August, the marginal inflection point of the previous concentrated overseas demand release is approaching, and the economic fundamental will test the sustainability of market sentiment. Personnel changes within the Fed and next week's US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest - rate cuts and risk appetite [7]. - Domestic macro: At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan; RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 9.66 trillion yuan. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - Asset views: Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit - repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities but focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds; slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest - rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the inflection points of policies and data in the second half of August [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4163.8, down 0.17% daily, up 1.97% weekly, 2.63% monthly, 11.36% quarterly, and 6.19% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures closed at 2829.6, up 0.38% daily, up 1.59% weekly, 1.89% monthly, 7.67% quarterly, and 5.66% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures closed at 6380.2, down 1.11% daily, up 2.46% weekly, 4.18% monthly, 16.03% quarterly, and 12.07% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures closed at 6929.2, down 1.04% daily, up 2.88% weekly, 5.98% monthly, 19.75% quarterly, and 18.48% year - to - date [3]. - Treasury futures: 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102.348, down 0.02% daily, down 0.04% weekly, flat monthly, down 0.20% quarterly, and down 0.61% year - to - date; 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.665, down 0.08% daily, down 0.17% weekly, down 0.06% monthly, down 0.53% quarterly, and down 0.82% year - to - date; 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.325, down 0.10% daily, down 0.29% weekly, down 0.15% monthly, down 0.55% quarterly, and down 0.55% year - to - date; 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 117.88, down 0.33% daily, down 1.21% weekly, down 1.04% monthly, down 1.73% quarterly, and down 0.80% year - to - date [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.7884, unchanged daily, down 0.49% weekly, down 2.26% monthly, down 1.80% quarterly, and down 9.86% year - to - date; the US dollar central parity rate was 7.1337 [3]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.51; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.73, up 0.8 bp daily, up 3.4 bp weekly, up 3 bp monthly, up 7.3 bp quarterly, and up 0.1 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.29, up 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 9 bp monthly, unchanged quarterly, and down 26 bp year - to - date; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.57, up 6 bp daily, unchanged weekly, up 13 bp monthly, up 2 bp quarterly, and up 24 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year breakeven inflation rate was 2.38, down 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 4 bp monthly, up 11 bp quarterly, and up 7 bp year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Commodity Market Fluctuations - Metals: Gold closed at 778.7, up 0.13% daily, down 1.16% weekly, up 1.09% monthly, down 1.49% quarterly, and up 26.08% year - to - date; silver closed at 9286, down 0.15% daily, up 0.09% weekly, up 3.09% monthly, up 11.56% quarterly, and up 24.31% year - to - date; copper closed at 78950, down 0.54% daily, up 0.59% weekly, up 1.17% monthly, up 2.73% quarterly, and up 7.02% year - to - date; aluminum closed at 20715, down 0.36% daily, up 0.15% weekly, up 1.00% monthly, up 4.12% quarterly, and up 4.73% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 62.74, down 0.54% daily, down 0.96% weekly, down 9.54% monthly, down 0.68% quarterly, and down 12.70% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil closed at 65.74, down 0.56% daily, down 0.87% weekly, down 8.41% monthly, down 0.14% quarterly, and down 12.15% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas closed at 2.819, up 1.33% daily, down 5.91% weekly, down 9.06% monthly, down 10.73% quarterly, and down 22.41% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Agriculture: CBOT soybeans closed at 1042, up 0.94% daily, up 5.63% weekly, up 5.23% monthly, down 1.63% quarterly, and up 3.17% year - to - date; CBOT corn closed at 396.75, up 0.57% daily, down 2.28% weekly, down 4.11% monthly, down 18.03% quarterly, and down 13.51% year - to - date; CBOT wheat closed at 507, up 0.45% daily, down 1.65% weekly, down 3.24% monthly, down 6.93% quarterly, and down 7.99% year - to - date; etc. [3]. 3.3 Asset Views and Short - Term Judgments - Financial: For stock index futures, growth opportunities are spreading, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for stock index options, offensive strategies are being laid out, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for Treasury futures, the bond market remains under pressure, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are oscillating strongly, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward [8]. - Shipping: For container shipping to Europe, focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Black building materials: Steel prices are fluctuating due to cost changes, with a short - term judgment of volatile; iron ore prices are oscillating with a slight decline in hot - metal production, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension, with a short - term judgment of volatile; aluminum prices are continuing to recover with fluctuating sentiment, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil prices are facing supply pressure with eased geopolitical concerns, with a short - term judgment of volatile downward; LPG prices are stable in cracking spreads supported by chemical demand, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10]. - Agriculture: For oils and fats, the short - term market sentiment is cooling, but there is a high probability of continued strength in the medium term, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for protein meals, the bullish sentiment is being released, and the market may oscillate and adjust, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10].