光大期货金融期货日报-20250815

Research Views - Yesterday, the A-share market showed a volatile correction with increased trading volume. The Wind All A index dropped 0.86% with a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 index declined 1.2%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, and the SSE 300 index decreased 0.08%. The personal consumer loan discount policy has been implemented, and policies are further tilted towards promoting household consumption. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. It is predicted that the central bank will purchase national debt to raise funds for the central government, and more inclusive fiscal support programs will be launched to stabilize and boost China's inflation environment [1]. - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors, and new funds have a long - lasting impact but may have limited influence on the upper limit of stock prices; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to the appreciation of the RMB under the weak US dollar and the improvement of corporate deposit and loan data, which makes entity liquidity more likely to flow into the stock market. In terms of operation, the market is gradually tilting towards the long side, and a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. The bond market showed a flat reaction after the release of weak July financial data as the market had already anticipated it. This week, the capital market is loose, but the strong stock market suppresses the bond market, which is running bearishly. In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the rise in risk appetite, but there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, so it will mainly show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH rose 0.38%, IF fell 0.17%, IC dropped 1.11%, and IM declined 1.04%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 decreased 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.24%. For treasury bond futures, TS fell 0.02%, TF declined 0.08%, T dropped 0.10%, and TL decreased 0.33%. For treasury bond yields, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased [3]. Market News - After the release of stronger - than - expected US PPI data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting is 90%, while the market fully anticipated this scenario a day ago [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The section includes charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the current - month basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The section contains charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - The section presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar to RMB (1M and 3M), forward euro to RMB (1M and 3M), the US dollar index, euro to US dollar, pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].