南华贵金属日报：美PPI超预期，降息预期回落-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trend has returned to adjustment. Investors are currently focused on the hints of interest - rate cut prospects and the successor selection issue at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting next Friday. The report maintains the idea of buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market adjusted significantly due to the US PPI far exceeding expectations, which reignited inflation concerns and weakened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rebounded. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3382.3 per ounce, down 0.76%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $38.035 per ounce, down 1.47%. SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 778.7 yuan per gram, up 0.31%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9286 yuan per kilogram, up 0.77%. The US July PPI year - on - year was +3.3%, much higher than the previous value of +2.3% and the expected +2.5%, reaching the highest level since February this year [2]. 3.2. Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Expectations for the number of interest - rate cuts within the year have cooled, and the fantasy of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September has been dashed. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.1%. Long - term fund holdings show that the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons to 961.36 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.25 tons to 15071.31 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.7 tons to 1150.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.5 tons to 1304.5 tons as of the week ending August 8 [3]. 3.3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. Tonight, focus on the US July retail sales data [4]. 3.4. Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 778.7 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.98 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.13%; CME gold main contract is at $3382.3 per ounce, down $24.7 or 0.72%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 9286 yuan per kilogram, down 14 yuan or 0.15%; CME silver main contract is at $38.035 per ounce, down $0.515 or 1.34% [5][6]. - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory increased by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms, with a daily increase rate of 0.83%; SPDR gold holdings decreased by 2.86 tons to 961.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 15.684 tons to 1150.782 tons, with a daily increase rate of 1.38%; SLV silver holdings decreased by 28.2477 tons to 15071.312744 tons [17]. 3.5. Other Market Data - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Markets: The US dollar index is at 98.1918, up 0.4055 or 0.41%; WTI crude oil spot is at $63.96 per barrel, up $1.31 or 2.09%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.29%, up 0.05 or 1.18% [22].