碳酸锂日报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 14, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.28% to 85,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 950 yuan/ton to 79,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,040 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 21,939 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. In terms of demand, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, short - term production suspension has boosted market sentiment. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, and the market may fluctuate in the short term. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the suspension period needs attention. As prices rise, some enterprises may resume production, and overseas imports are expected to increase. Future focus should be on actual lithium salt supply, overseas import increments, terminal customer supply, and potential issues with other mining licenses [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,480 yuan/ton, down 9,140 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts and other products: Various lithium salts, lithium hydroxides, and other product prices showed different degrees of increase or remained stable, and there were also corresponding changes in price differences [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium phosphate - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the price trends of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 2024 to August 2025 [35][37]. 3.7 Production Costs - Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].