农产品日报-20250815
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 05:03
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Neutral [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish [1] - Oils: Bullish [1] - Eggs: Neutral [1] - Pigs: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, with the 9 - month contract approaching the delivery month. The spot market has different price performances in various regions, and the futures price is affected by policies and fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible resistance and decline of the 9 - month contract price [1]. - The CBOT soybean closed lower due to export demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal mainly fluctuates, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and the ICE rapeseed futures also declined. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market down. The oils market is in a bullish trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - The egg futures have completed the position transfer. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future, with the high point likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - The pig futures main contract fluctuated weakly. The spot price showed a mixed pattern of rise, stability, and decline. The short - term spot price is supported by the strong price - holding intention of breeders, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: The 9 - month contract of corn futures has reduced positions and risen this week, with the main funds shifting to forward contracts. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, in the North China it is stable with limited adjustments, and in the sales area it is generally stable with individual port rebounds. Technically, the futures price is in a stalemate after a short - term decline and then stabilizes and rises. There is a need to pay attention to the game between policies and fundamentals [1]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean closed lower. The new US soybean net sales were higher than expected, while the old - crop net sales were negative due to contract cancellations. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the soybean meal fluctuates, and the strategy is short - term long participation and holding the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - Oils: The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and an Indonesian organization is lobbying to postpone the B50 biodiesel policy. The ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US soybean oil followed the US soybean down. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market. The oils market is in a bullish trend with rich market themes and high uncertainty [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures have completed position transfer. The 2509 contract declined, and the 2510 contract rose slightly. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future [1][2]. - Pigs: The pig futures main contract 2511 declined. The spot price showed a mixed pattern. The short - term spot price is supported by breeders' price - holding intention, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. Market Information - India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports in July decreased compared to June, while the total vegetable oil imports increased [3]. - The US 2024/2025 annual soybean and corn export sales as of August 7 were far lower than market expectations [3]. - Brazil's 2024/25 annual soybean production is expected to reach 1.69657 billion tons, and the corn production is expected to be 13.7005 million tons [3]. - The corn planting area in the central crop area of Argentina in the 2025/26 year is expected to increase by 15% - 20% [3]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [5][7][8][11]. - Contract Basis: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [13][17][23][25].