光大期货工业硅日报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 14, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.14%. The open interest decreased by 5,465 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 315 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.08%. The open interest decreased by 4,706 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 5,270 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of China's industrial silicon production areas continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a pattern of double - growth, and in the short term, it continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke [2]. - Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in multiple provinces put forward a joint initiative against "involution." In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market was trading on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit was relatively obvious [2]. - Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 8,775 yuan/ton on August 13 to 8,695 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract increased from 8,575 yuan/ton to 8,635 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no change in the prices of non - oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon in different regions [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 375 yuan/ton to 315 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton on August 13 to 50,430 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 860 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton to 49,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 6,790 yuan/ton to 5,270 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC price in the East China market decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue decreased by 500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained at 50,701. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 tons to 251,700 tons. The weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained at 55,000 tons, and the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 5,150. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices Charts present prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [13][14][16]. Inventory Charts display industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost - profit Charts show average cost levels, average profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst in gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [35].