有色商品日报-20250815
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 05:05
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper showed a weakening trend. The US July PPI data dampened market expectations of significant Fed rate - cuts. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. There are still differences in the market's view of US copper prospects. With US copper over - stocking, there is a risk of inventory relocation, which may impact global copper prices. However, the approaching "Golden September" season and anti - cut - throat competition policy expectations provide some support, and the price is likely to maintain a balance between bulls and bears for now [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina was weakening, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strengthening. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There is an expectation of over - supply due to the resumption of alumina production, but short - term cost support limits the decline. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia may lead to higher US tariffs on them, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum is showing signs of change, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak season [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Inventory increased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, and the market sentiment improved with continuous inventory digestion. Overall, the fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: US July PPI rose to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap shrank. Market views on US copper vary due to over - stocking. The approaching "Golden September" and anti - cut - throat competition policies support the price, and it maintains a balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina (AO2509) closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, with an increase in positions. Shanghai aluminum (AL2509) closed at 20760 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, with a decrease in positions. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20175 yuan/ton, up 0.22%, with a decrease in positions. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot changed from discount to premium. Aluminum rod and bar processing fees showed different trends. In August, the profit shifted from upstream to downstream. The resumption of alumina production increased over - supply expectations, but cost support limited the decline. The India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement may lead to higher US tariffs, and the approaching "Golden September" led to early stocking in some sectors, with the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum showing signs of change [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.25% to 15050 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.19% to 120620 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 42 tons to 211140 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 142 tons to 20720 tons. The LME0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was stable at 400 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, with the nickel - iron transaction price rising. The social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the market sentiment improved. The domestic nickel inventory increased slightly in August, and the overall fundamentals showed little change and were volatile [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 79385 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 227 yuan/ton. The inventory in LME and COMEX increased, and the total social inventory remained unchanged. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the import loss of the active contract increased by 220 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees in some regions decreased slightly. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased [3]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot changed from discount to a 10 - yuan/ton premium. The prices of raw materials such as aluminum ore and alumina remained stable. The processing fees of some downstream products changed. The LME inventory increased by 1050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3913 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 19 yuan/ton [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable or changed slightly. The LME inventory increased by 42 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased by 444 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 680 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 22540 yuan/ton. The LmeS3 price remained stable. The domestic and import zinc premiums remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1025 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.11 million tons [5]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 268590 yuan/ton, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of tin concentrates increased. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts 1 - 6 show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts 7 - 12 show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - LME Inventory: Charts 13 - 18 show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts 19 - 24 show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts 25 - 30 show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - Smelting Profit: Charts 31 - 36 show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the 2016 Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [47]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [47]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focused on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the new energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [48].