光大期货软商品日报-20250815

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.21% to 67.59 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.32% to 14,155 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 15,397 lots to 471,300 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,060 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,214 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan. The USDA August report was bullish, but the market had no sustained reaction. The focus is on the macro - level, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut. Domestically, the market will shift focus to new cotton. Although a harvest increase is certain, the current low cotton price has factored this in. The import and initial inventory are expected to be low in the new year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio will decline significantly. Before new cotton is listed, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices may oscillate upward [1] - For sugar, India will allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted to ethanol production in the 2025/26 season. The spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan increased by 10 - 20 yuan per ton, and the processing sugar mill prices adjusted by 10 - 20 yuan per ton. Raw sugar failed to continue its rebound, facing pressure above 17 cents. Domestically, the spot trading recovered, but the futures price was in a dilemma at night. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, waiting for import data and raw sugar guidance [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: Current price trends, trading volume changes, and market reactions to USDA reports are presented. The macro - situation and domestic new cotton supply - demand are analyzed, and the price trend before new cotton listing is predicted [1] - Sugar: Information on India's sugar - to - ethanol policy, domestic spot price adjustments, raw sugar trends, and domestic futures price trends are provided, and the future price trend is judged [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 280, up 20; the main - contract basis was 1059, up 1; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,060 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,214 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan [2] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 59, down 15; the main - contract basis was 341, up 8; the Nanning spot price was 5980 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6000 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3. Market Information - On August 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 84 to 7922, with 273 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load rose to 49.4, the yarn comprehensive inventory decreased to 29.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained at 48.4, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased to 33.1 [3] - On August 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou increased by 10 yuan per ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 245 to 17,284, with no valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those for cotton and sugar futures prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, which visually show the historical trends of these data [6][14]