化工日报：本周EG主港继续累库-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Maintain a neutral stance on domestic supplies, but keep an eye on cost changes due to low inventories and unexpected overseas operations [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,367 yuan/ton (a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,488 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, a change of +0.00%), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 82 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton (a decrease of $2/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of the main ports in East China increased this week [1] - In terms of supply, the domestic load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Overseas, the restart of some units has not gone smoothly, and the increase in EG imports has been lower than expected. In terms of demand, the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly alleviated, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build-up in August, with a lack of sustainability in the increase of port inventories, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,367 yuan/ton (a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,488 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, a change of +0.00%), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 82 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton (a decrease of $2/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - In July, there was a concentrated restocking at the terminal, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly alleviated. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 553,000 tons (an increase of 37,000 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 535,000 tons (an increase of 49,000 tons month-on-month). As of August 14, the total inventory of MEG in the ports of East China was 534,500 tons, an increase of 57,100 tons from Monday and 48,800 tons from Thursday of last week [1]